Population Prospects

Editorial Analysis for Civil Services - Population Prospects

Population Prospects


  • The World Population Prospects 2022, a projection of anticipated trends in world population, was released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, on July 11, World Population Day.
  • According to the estimate, the world’s population, which was about 7.9 billion people in 2021, would increase to 8 billion people on November 15, 2022, with India overtaking China as the world’s most populated nation in 2023.

What is there in the report?

  • According to the forecasts, the population of the world could increase to about 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050 before peaking at about 10.4 billion in 2100.
  • Up until 2100, the population is anticipated to stay at that level. In 2019, the average life expectancy in the world was 72.8 years, an increase of over 9 years since 1990.
  • The average lifespan worldwide is anticipated to reach 77.2 years in 2050 as a result of further mortality decreases.
  • Globally, women had a life expectancy at birth that was 5.4 years higher than that of males, with 73.8 years for women and 68.4 years for men, respectively.
  • The average fertility of the world’s population, or the number of children a woman gives birth to during her reproductive career, was 2.3 births per woman in 2021, down from nearly five births per woman in 1950.
  • By 2050, it is predicted that global fertility would have further decreased to 2.1 births per woman. Sub-Saharan African nations are estimated to continue expanding until 2100 and contribute to more than half of the projected global population growth through 2050.
Impact of Pandemic:
  • The research is clear that COVID-19 has had an impact, even though it takes time for exogenous shocks to show up in demographic predictions. Global life expectancy decreased to 71.0 years in 2021 from 72.8 years in 2019, “primarily” as a result of the pandemic, according to the research. Regions have been affected differently, though.
  • Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy at birth decreased across Central and South Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean by roughly three years. In contrast, Australia and New Zealand’s combined population gained 1.2 years as a result of decreasing pandemic mortality chances for various diseases.
Status in India:
  • For the first time in the nation’s history, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) had fallen to 2.0 or below the replacement rate of 2.1, according to the fifth edition of India’s National Family Health Survey published in 2021.
  • According to government forecasts, India’s population would increase from its current 1.4 billion people to 1.67 billion in 2050 before levelling off at roughly 1.5 billion in 2100.
  • According to UN predictions, the population will peak at 1.7 billion some time in 2064.


         Source The Hindu

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