Is India Getting Hotter?

Context

Several parts of India experienced heatwave and quasi-heatwave conditions in 2026, leading to concerns regarding rising temperatures, delayed monsoon onset and the possible emergence of El Niño conditions. Viral social media claims that India hosted the world’s hottest cities further intensified the debate on whether India is becoming significantly hotter.

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Key Takeaway

Is India Getting Hotter?

Yes, in the long term due to climate change and urbanisation.

However:

• May 2026 was not an exceptionally hot month at the national level.
• Daytime temperatures were largely normal or below normal across most of the country.
• The larger concern is the long-term rise in heatwave frequency, duration and night-time temperatures.

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What Happened in 2026?

Factors Raising Concern

• Heatwave and quasi-heatwave conditions in several cities.
• Delayed onset of the southwest monsoon.
• Possibility of emerging El Niño conditions.
• Viral reports claiming India had the world’s hottest cities.

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El Niño and India

What is El Niño?

El Niño

El Niño refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Impact on India

• Weakens monsoon circulation.
• Reduces rainfall.
• Increases temperatures.
• Raises drought risk.
• Increases likelihood of heatwaves and humid heatwaves.

Possible 2026 Effects

• Longer dry spells during monsoon.
• Reduced moisture availability.
• Increased heat stress, particularly in north-west India.

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Was May 2026 Unusually Hot?

IMD Assessment: No

According to the India Meteorological Department:

Temperature Outlook

Maximum temperatures remained:

• Normal to below normal across most of India.
• Above normal mainly in:
  • Southern Peninsula
  • Parts of North-East India
  • Parts of North-West India

Rainfall Outlook

• All-India rainfall projected at above 110% of Long Period Average (LPA).

What is Long Period Average (LPA)?

LPA is the average rainfall or temperature calculated over a long period (usually 30 years) and serves as the benchmark for classifying weather conditions as:

• Normal
• Above Normal
• Below Normal

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Heatwaves: The Long-Term Concern

Findings from IMD Study (1961–2020)

Core Heatwave Zone (CHZ)

The CHZ includes:

• Punjab
• Haryana
• Delhi
• Rajasthan
• Uttar Pradesh
• Gujarat
• Madhya Pradesh
• Chhattisgarh
• Bihar
• Jharkhand
• West Bengal
• Odisha
• Telangana
• Maharashtra (Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra)
• Coastal Andhra Pradesh
• Himachal Pradesh
• Uttarakhand

Key Trends

Increasing Heatwave Frequency

• Increased by 0.1 day per decade

Increasing Heatwave Duration

• Increased by 0.44 day per decade

Faster Rise in Night Temperatures

• Increased by approximately 0.21°C per decade

Why Night-Time Warming Matters

Higher night temperatures:

• Prevent human bodies from recovering from daytime heat.
• Increase heat stress and mortality.
• Raise energy demand for cooling.

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Weather vs Climate

UPSC Concept

A hot day or even a hot month does not prove climate change. Climate change is established through long-term temperature trends.

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Viral Claim: “50 Hottest Cities in the World Were in India”

Should the Claim Be Accepted?- No. The claim requires caution.

Reasons

Limited Timeframe

• Ranking was based on a single day (27 April 2026).
• One day cannot establish climatic trends.

Geographical Bias

Many regions were excluded:

• West Asia
• Africa
• Australia

Methodological Concerns

• Based on 24-hour average temperatures rather than maximum temperatures.
• Favours cities with warmer nights.
• Disadvantages desert regions that cool rapidly after sunset.
• Methodology was not fully transparent.

Conclusion

The ranking does not provide reliable evidence that India was globally the hottest region.

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Was April 2026 Hotter Than April 2025?

Daytime temperatures were generally cooler than in April 2025.

Why?

The IMD attributed this moderation to:

• Active Western Disturbances.
• Above-normal rainfall.

What are Western Disturbances?

Western Disturbance

These are eastward-moving storms originating in the Mediterranean region that bring rainfall and cooler temperatures to north-western India.

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Urban Heat Islands (UHIs)

What is an Urban Heat Island?

Urban Heat Island

Urban areas become significantly warmer than nearby rural areas.

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Causes

Land Cover Changes

Replacement of:

• Vegetation
• Soil
• Water bodies

with:

• Concrete
• Asphalt
• Buildings

Consequences

• Reduced evapotranspiration.
• Lower albedo (reflectivity).
• Poor ventilation.
• Heat trapped in urban structures.

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Mechanism

During the Day

Buildings and roads absorb solar radiation.

During the Night

Stored heat is slowly released, keeping cities warmer.

Magnitude in India

Urban centres can be:

2–10°C warmer than surrounding rural areas, especially during the night.

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Role of Air Conditioning

Cooling Indoors, Heating Outdoors

Air-conditioners:

• Remove heat from indoor spaces.
• Release waste heat into the external environment.

Consequences

• Increased ambient temperature.
• Greater electricity demand.
• Feedback loop of higher cooling requirements.

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Is Urbanisation More Important Than Climate Change?

A 2024 study in the journal Nature Cities found:

Warming Trends

• Indian cities warming at 0.53°C per decade
• India overall warming at 0.26°C per decade

Attribution

• Around 38% of urban warming is due to urbanisation.
• Climate change remains the primary driver.
• Urbanisation amplifies regional warming by nearly 60%.

Conclusion

Urban Heat Islands intensify local temperatures, but climate change remains the dominant cause of long-term warming.

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Implications for India

Environmental

• More frequent heatwaves.
• Increased drought risk.
• Higher water stress.

Economic

• Reduced labour productivity.
• Higher cooling and electricity demand.
• Agricultural losses.

Health

• Heatstroke and heat-related illnesses.
• Increased mortality.
• Greater vulnerability among urban poor.

Urban Planning

• Need for green infrastructure.
• Cool roofs and reflective surfaces.
• Better urban ventilation.
• Heat Action Plans.

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Way Forward

Climate Adaptation

• Strengthen Heat Action Plans.
• Improve early warning systems.
• Expand climate-resilient infrastructure.

Sustainable Urbanisation

• Urban forests and green belts.
• Cool roofing technologies.
• Water-sensitive urban design.

Climate Mitigation

• Renewable energy transition.
• Energy-efficient buildings.
• Reduced dependence on fossil fuels.

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 Prelims Pointers

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UPSC Mains Question

1. “Urban Heat Islands amplify the impact of climate change but do not replace it as the primary driver of rising temperatures.” Discuss in the context of increasing heat stress in Indian cities. (15 Marks, 250 Words)
2. “India may not be experiencing record heat every year, but long-term climatic trends indicate growing heat stress. Examine the causes, consequences and adaptation strategies required to address rising temperatures in India.” (15 Marks, 250 Words)