Forecasting better in India, come rain or shine

Forecasting better in India, come rain or shine

 

Context

The article- “Forecasting better in India, come rain or shine”, discusses the increasing extreme weather events happening in India and also throws light on the recently introduced “Mission Mausam”.

 

Relevance:
GS-01 (Geography)

 

Dimensions of the Article

  • Rising Extreme Weather Events in India
  • Mission Mausam
  • Gaps in Weather Data Access and Radar Coverage
  • Suggested measures

 

Rising Extreme Weather Events in India

  • Unpredictable Monsoon and Floods: According to a study by Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), 40% of Indian districts experience alternating hazards like floods and droughts. The year 2024 itself has experiences the worst monsoon hits in recent times, with almost every state experiencing some form of flooding. Few places have also witnessed severe droughts during the dry season.
  • Increased Heavy Rainfall: Data from 40 years of rainfall shows that there has been a sharp rise in the number of days with heavy rainfall by 64% over the last decade that cause damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and lead to displacement of communities.
  • Limited Forecasting Capabilities: Although there are sufficient effective warning mechanisms for cyclone, in about two-thirds of the population who are at risk of floods, only one-third of them have access to early warning systems. There lies a stark imbalance in the forecasting capabilities of the country.

 

Mission Mausam

  • It is a ₹2,000 crore initiative by the Ministry of Earth Sciences to expand India’s weather monitoring network that got approved in 2024.
  • The mission focuses on increasing the number of weather stations and observational platforms and also increase the number of Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) to enhance data collection on weather events.
  • Aim: It primarily aims to bring more accuracy weather forecasting models by incorporating machine learning.
  • It is lead by three key institutions—the India Meteorological Department (IMD), National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
  • It even explores technologies that could potentially alter weather patterns, such as cloud seeding.

 

Gaps in Weather Data Access and Radar Coverage

  • Need for More Radars in Vulnerable Areas: Out of 39 Doppler Weather Radars, that mostly covers the Himalayan States and the eastern coast, very less radar coverage is with some of the critical areas like the west coast, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Rajasthan.
  • Open Access to Weather Data: Unlike, U.S., U.K., and E.U., which has free access to weather data,  India’s weather data is restricted. If made free, researchers and innovators could create useful early warning tools from the data available

 

Suggested measures:

  • Enhancing User Experience: “Mission Mausam” should work on making warning systems easy for common people to understand. As, the IMD, currently issues district-level warnings by providing weather information through apps and websites, which most users find it difficult to understand.
  • Improving Early Warning Tools: Similar level of awareness that are available to cyclones, should also be done to flood risks under “Mission Mausam”.
  • Localized Early Warning Systems: Tools that predict events in real-time needs to be deployed in areas at high risk of floods and other extreme weather events.

 

Way Forward

  • Current restrictions on IMD data access should be made freely available to enhance better analysis, better decision-making, and improved disaster resilience.
  • Mission Mausam should be made an easy platform for everyone to understand so that it will help people be prepared to act.
  • Improved weather models are needed to help predict rainfall more accurately, particularly in urban areas prone to flooding.
  • Advances in satellite technology, data analytics, and AI-driven forecast models can help identify patterns in the monsoon and make predictions more reliable.
  • Budgets for disaster management need to be increased to account for the growing risks posed by climate change and erratic monsoon patterns