Rising Carbon Emissions
Context
Countries have gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan, to discuss strategies for reducing carbon emissions amid concerning new data from the Global Carbon Budget (GCB), a collective of scientists.
- Their latest report reveals that global carbon emissions are projected to rise by 0.8% in 2024, highlighting the urgent need for more decisive climate action.
Relevance:
GS-03 (Conservation)
Key Highlights
Rising Carbon Emissions
- In 2024, global fossil CO₂ emissions are expected to increase by 0.8%, a slight improvement from the 1.2% rise in 2023.
- Emissions are primarily driven by major contributors: China (31%), the United States (13%), India (8%), and the EU-27 (7%).
- Together, they account for 59% of global fossil CO₂ emissions.
Per-Capita CO₂ Emissions
- In 2023, the global per-capita fossil CO₂ emissions stood at 1.3 tonnes per person annually.
- The United States leads at 3.9, followed by China at 2.3, the EU-27 at 1.5, and India at 0.6 tonnes per person.
Country-Specific Trends
- By the end of 2024, India’s fossil emissions are expected to rise by 4.6% and China’s by 0.2%.
- In contrast, the United States is projected to reduce emissions by 0.6% and reach a total of 4.9 billion tonnes, while China is expected to emit 12 billion tonnes and India 3.2 billion tonnes.
Sectoral Emissions Projections
- Emissions from coal, oil, and gas in 2024 are projected to be marginally above 2023 levels, with increases of 0.2%, 0.9%, and 2.4%, respectively.
- Land-use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) contribute approximately 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon annually.
Atmospheric CO₂ Levels
- Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is set to reach 422.5 ppm in 2024, a 52% increase over pre-industrial levels, indicating persistent reliance on fossil fuels.
Call to Action for Paris Agreement Goals
- With global warming impacts worsening, scientists stress the need for deep emissions cuts to meet Paris Agreement targets and limit temperature rise below 2°C, ideally striving for 1.5°C.
- The GCB study projects a 50% likelihood that the remaining carbon budget will be depleted within six years, potentially breaching the 1.5°C threshold.
What is the Paris Agreement?
- The Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015 by replacing the Kyoto Protocol, which was an earlier agreement to deal with climate change.
- It is also known as the Conference of Parties 21, or COP 21.
- It is a global treaty that was agreed upon by almost 200 countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
- It seeks to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industry levels.
- The Paris Agreement works on a 5-year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate action carried out by countries.
- In 2020, countries had submitted their plans for climate action known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
- Tracking Progress: The Paris Agreement introduced an Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF), through which, starting in 2024, countries will transparently report on their climate actions, including mitigation, adaptation measures, and support provided or received.
- The ETF also includes international procedures to review these submitted reports. This collected information will contribute to the Global Stocktake, which assesses the collective progress towards achieving long-term climate goals.
