India–Pakistan Ties Through the Prism of the Indus Treaty
Why in News?
- India suspended the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after the April Pahalgam terror attack, calling for a review and renegotiation.
- Water sharing is emerging as a new flashpoint, alongside terrorism and Kashmir.
Divergent Perspectives on the IWT
- Allocation:
- Pakistan received 80% of Indus waters (western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).
- India got 20% (eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).
- India’s View:
- Nehru saw it as a “purchased peace” and gesture of goodwill.
- Critics (e.g., EAM Jaishankar) see it as appeasement.
- Pakistan’s View:
- Never celebrated 80:20 division — doing so would weaken its victimhood narrative.
- Uses Treaty clauses to challenge India’s J&K projects.
- Result: Both sides remain dissatisfied, though for opposite reasons.
🇵🇰 Pakistan’s Insecurity Over Indus Waters
- Fears India may disrupt flows despite Treaty guarantees.
- Water insecurity tied to Kashmir dispute.
- General Ayub Khan (1960s) linked Kashmir’s annexation to Pakistan’s water security.
- Repeated use of dispute mechanisms to stall Indian hydropower projects in J&K (e.g., Kishanganga, Baglihar).
Why the IWT Endured So Long?
- Survived 4 wars, terrorism, and decades of hostility.
- India, as upper riparian, bore the main responsibility:
- Ensuring minimum flows.
- Data sharing on river flows.
- If Pakistan were upper riparian, many argue the Treaty may not have lasted.
- Pakistan exploited Treaty’s technical mechanisms to delay Indian projects, despite not being directly affected upstream.
The Future of the IWT
- Pakistan’s Position:
- Reluctant to renegotiate — enjoys favourable terms.
- Push for involving China (8% basin) and Afghanistan (6% basin).
- India’s Position:
- Insists on bilateral framework (no World Bank, no third parties).
- Focus now on maximising use of western rivers within Treaty limits (storage, hydro projects in J&K).
- Suspension of Permanent Indus Commission meetings reduces structured dialogue.
- Strategic Shift: India signals willingness to use upper riparian leverage to pressure Pakistan on terrorism and water disputes
