India-China Diplomatic Reconciliation: Key Points and Future Implications
Context
After the recent meeting of Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping during the BRICS summit in Kazan, India’s diplomatic relations with China is showing signs of improvement.
- The symbolic exchange of sweets at the LAC between both the armies, hints the possibility of reducing tensions that was seen over the past four years.
Relevance:
GS-02 (International Relations)
Dimensions of the Article
- Major Concerns with the New Beginning
- Future Challenges
- Arguments about China’s Intentions
Major Concerns with the New Beginning
- Ambiguity in New Patrolling Arrangements: Although disengagement of troops has been announced, a clear protocol about the administration has not been given for areas like Depsang, Yangtse and Demchok.
- Lack of Government Transparency: Since the Galwan Valley incident in 2020, the Government has been criticised for its lack of transparency.
- Challenges of Verifying Disengagement: While certain locations have witnessed disengagement, compliance through on-ground and satellite verification is yet to be done transparently.
- Risk of Domestic Criticism: Any perceived leniency in government policies towards China may invite political and public backlash in India unless clear benefits and security assurances are communicated effectively.
Future Challenges
- Ensuring Strategic Stability and Border Security: India must adapt its military strategy if buffer zones at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) become a permanent fixture, as seen with the Doklam disengagement. Continued infrastructure development in buffer areas by China could place India at a strategic disadvantage, necessitating updated security protocols and rapid mobilisation capacities.
- Revitalising Economic and Diplomatic Ties: Economic and diplomatic re-engagement will be crucial, as prior economic collaboration, particularly in technology and telecom, was significant for India. Re-establishing investment and trade connections will require navigating political sensibilities while enhancing bilateral ties.
- Impact on Public Perception: Managing domestic sentiment around the détente will be vital. Clear communication regarding the national benefits of peace and the long-term impact of improved relations with China will be essential to maintaining public trust and securing political stability.
Arguments about China’s Intentions
- Territorial Ambitions and Expansive Goals: Some analysts argue that China’s manoeuvres along the LAC align with its goal of reclaiming territory it views as historically Chinese. Xi Jinping’s 2014 speech underscored this ambition, leading to assertive actions not only with India but also with Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Bhutan’s Doklam.
- Strategic Pressure on India’s Foreign Ties: China’s military actions may serve as a strategic reminder to India regarding its relationship with the U.S. As India grows closer to Western allies, China could be asserting its influence along the border to emphasise the challenges India may face in balancing these alliances.
- Response to India’s Border Infrastructure: China has likely been alarmed by India’s rapid infrastructure developments, including the airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldie. These advancements potentially impact China’s security around sensitive regions like Xinjiang, motivating increased Chinese military presence along disputed areas.
- Reaction to India’s Internal Changes: China’s reaction to India’s 2019 reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh may also have played a role. The release of new Indian maps highlighting these territories could have provoked Beijing to intensify its border activity, potentially as a show of disapproval.
Way Forward
- Given evolving ground realities, India and China may need to negotiate updated border protocols, including the new patrolling arrangements that incorporate better oversight and technology-based surveillance, to reduce the likelihood of conflict
- The government must anticipate potential public and political opposition to this détente, balancing the benefits of peace with firm commitments to security to maintain a unified stance.
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