How to navigate a complex global paradigm
Context
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The 6th China–U.S. Exchange Foundation (CUSEF) Forum, titled ‘Circles for Peace’, was held in Hong Kong (Nov 17–18, 2025).
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Discussions highlighted the deep mistrust and strategic anxieties shaping U.S.–China relations.
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Hong Kong emerged as a symbolic and practical “middle space”, offering a vantage point for dialogue.
Key Themes & Insights
1. Complex U.S.–China Rivalry
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Trust is thin; both sides expect sudden shocks.
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Old frameworks — engagement, guardrails, managed competition — seen as insufficient for current complexities.
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Domestic politics have narrowed room for nuance; public anxiety shapes foreign policy.
2. Human Dimension: Shrinking People-to-People Ties
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Decline in American students in China; Chinese enrolments in U.S. have also fallen.
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Loss of familiarity → future generations perceive each other through fear-based narratives.
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Personality-driven diplomacy (leaders’ summits) not enough.
3. Technology & AI as Global Commons
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AI viewed as an international public good.
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Governance must be based on equity, transparency, accountability.
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Blurring of civilian & defence tech raises risks.
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Need for global governance frameworks for AI, and even outer space (“galaxy governance”).
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Key question: Who sets rules for beyond-earth competition?
4. Taiwan: Risk of Escalation
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Beijing feels U.S. policy drifting toward “one China, one Taiwan”.
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Militarisation of the Taiwan discourse; lack of new vocabulary to de-escalate.
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Need for crisis-management mechanisms insulated from political swings.
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Risk of a repeat of EP-3 incident (2001).
5. Global Order in Flux: “Dialectic Moment”
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Described by Singapore’s Ng Eng Hen.
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Competing forces reshaping order, outcomes uncertain.
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Global commons must not become collateral damage of major-power rivalry.
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Future requires co-organisers, not a hegemon.
Role of Hong Kong: A Middle Space
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Hong Kong lives “between worlds”: China-centric but globally fluent.
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Symbolic of the world’s need for liminal spaces that enable dialogue.
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Its future depends on preserving:
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Transparency
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Connectivity
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Cultural hybridity
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Despite political pressures, Hong Kong facilitates people-to-people exchanges, offering hope.
Lessons & Implications for India
1. Navigating a Fractured World
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India cannot shape U.S.–China dynamics but can choose how to navigate them.
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Avoid rigid binaries: neither imitate U.S. rhetoric nor accept Chinese narratives unquestioningly.
2. Strategic Autonomy
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India must maintain an independent foreign policy while engaging both powers.
3. Build Internal Strength
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Technological capabilities
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Economic resilience
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Institutional robustness
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Youth engagement, cultural diplomacy, and tech ethics frameworks.
4. Multi-Alignment
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India should leverage forums like:
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Quad
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BRICS
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G20
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IPEF
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And continue developing its Indo-Pacific strategy.
5. Long Arc with China
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India–China relations marked by caution (border issues) and conviction (economic opportunities).
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Need for crisis-avoidance frameworks in the Himalayas similar to maritime mechanisms.
The Shape of the New Global Order
Key Insight
The U.S.–China relationship will not return to earlier stability; rivalry will stay turbulent.
But the alternative to managed rivalry is…
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Not victory for one side,
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But cascading global risks:
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Climate stress
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Pandemics
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Fragile supply chains
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Polarised societies
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Required Approach
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Move from competition → stewardship.
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Practical cooperation in:
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Energy
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Health
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Finance
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AI governance
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Way Forward
For the World
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New international regimes for AI & space.
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Strengthen crisis-management mechanisms.
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Preserve “middle spaces” like Hong Kong, Singapore, ASEAN.
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Encourage youth exchange, academia, cultural diplomacy.
For India
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Deepen domestic tech ecosystems (AI, semiconductors).
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Expand student, academic, business exchanges.
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Maintain multi-vector diplomacy.
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Actively shape global governance (climate, digital public infrastructure).
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Balance China carefully while securing borders and economy.
