A Year of Dissipating Promises for Indian Foreign Policy 

Context

• 2025 began with high expectations for Indian foreign policy after a politically busy 2024.

• Anticipated:

  • Reset in India–U.S. relations under Trump’s second term.

  • Conclusion of major Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTAs).

  • Thaw in ties with China and consolidation with Russia.

  • Stabilisation of the neighbourhood.

• However, by end-2025, these promises largely failed to materialise.

Key Challenges Identified

A. Economic & Energy Security

India–U.S. Relations

• Most difficult year in India–U.S. ties in decades.

• Key issues:

  • 25% reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports (apparel, gems, seafood).

  • 25% surcharge on Indian imports of Russian oil.

  • Continued impact of GSP withdrawal.

  • H-1B visa restrictions affecting remittances.

• Result:

  • Job losses, factory closures, trade uncertainty.

  • Trust deficit deepened.

Trade Agreements

• Signed FTAs: UK, Oman, New Zealand.

• Pending big-ticket deals:

  • India–U.S. BTA

  • India–EU FTA

• Undermines India’s export-led growth ambitions.

Energy Security & Russia

• Russian oil imports reached ~$52 billion.

• Renewed U.S. sanctions pressure raised uncertainty.

• Risk of repeating past episodes (Iran, Venezuela oil halt).

• India–Russia summit failed to deliver major strategic outcomes.

B. Major Power Relations

China

• Symbolic engagement (SCO summit optics).

• Limited outcomes:

  • Restoration of flights, visas, pilgrimages.

  • No resolution on LAC security guarantees.

  • No easing of investment restrictions.

• Incidents (e.g., detention of Indian passenger) highlighted trust deficit.

Russia

• Optics strong, substance weak.

• No new breakthroughs in defence, nuclear, energy, space cooperation.

C. Global Strategic Environment

Changing U.S. National Security Strategy (2025)

• Softer stance on:

  • China’s aggression (South China Sea, Taiwan).

  • Russia’s actions.

• India’s role downgraded:

  • Reduced from “leading global power” (2017 NSS) to limited Indo-Pacific partner.

• Risk of over-alignment with an unpredictable U.S.

• Trump’s “G-2” references (U.S.–China) marginalise India.

Erosion of Rules-Based Order

• Acceptance of Gaza & Ukraine peace plans favouring aggressors.

• China’s push for alternative Global Governance framework.

• UN’s declining conflict-management credibility.

• India lacks a clearly articulated vision for future global order.

D. Regional Security Challenges

Pakistan & Terrorism

• Pahalgam terror attack (April 2025) exposed security vulnerabilities.

• Operation Sindoor:

  • Militarily effective.

  • Diplomatic support limited.

• Allegations of Indian jet losses dented credibility due to official silence.

• Concerns over rapid escalation after “new normal” doctrine.

• Pakistan’s politics dominated by hardliners (Asim Munir).

Neighbourhood Instability

• Bangladesh: Post-regime change instability; ties at historic low.

• Nepal: Gen-Z protests, fragile transition.

• Myanmar: Junta-led elections despite Indian outreach.

• External alignments against India:

  • Saudi–Pakistan defence pact.

  • Deterioration of ties with Türkiye & Azerbaijan.

 Key Takeaways / Lessons for 2026

Limits of Performative Diplomacy

• Symbolism ≠ Strategic outcomes.

• Summits, hugs, optics do not replace sustained diplomacy.

Performative Aggression Has Limits

• Threats, boycotts work only with multilateral backing.

Narrative Correction Needed

• Shift from:

  • Vishwaguru → Vishwamitra (positive)

  • Avoid sliding into “Vishwa-victim” narrative.

Consistency & Credibility

• Double standards weaken India’s moral standing:

  • Minority rights concerns abroad vs silence at home.

  • Democracy advocacy vs engagement with Taliban.

• Principles must be applied consistently, not selectively.

Way Forward

• Rebalance foreign policy towards strategic autonomy.

• Reduce overdependence on any single power bloc.

• Articulate India’s own vision of global governance reform.

• Strengthen neighbourhood-first policy with political realism.

• Align values with actions to preserve credibility.

• Invest in substance-driven diplomacy over optics.

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