A Year of Dissipating Promises for Indian Foreign Policy
Context
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2025 began with high expectations for Indian foreign policy after a politically busy 2024.
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Anticipated:
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Reset in India–U.S. relations under Trump’s second term.
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Conclusion of major Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTAs).
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Thaw in ties with China and consolidation with Russia.
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Stabilisation of the neighbourhood.
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However, by end-2025, these promises largely failed to materialise.
Key Challenges Identified
A. Economic & Energy Security
India–U.S. Relations
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Most difficult year in India–U.S. ties in decades.
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Key issues:
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25% reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports (apparel, gems, seafood).
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25% surcharge on Indian imports of Russian oil.
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Continued impact of GSP withdrawal.
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H-1B visa restrictions affecting remittances.
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Result:
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Job losses, factory closures, trade uncertainty.
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Trust deficit deepened.
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Trade Agreements
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Signed FTAs: UK, Oman, New Zealand.
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Pending big-ticket deals:
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India–U.S. BTA
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India–EU FTA
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Undermines India’s export-led growth ambitions.
Energy Security & Russia
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Russian oil imports reached ~$52 billion.
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Renewed U.S. sanctions pressure raised uncertainty.
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Risk of repeating past episodes (Iran, Venezuela oil halt).
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India–Russia summit failed to deliver major strategic outcomes.
B. Major Power Relations
China
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Symbolic engagement (SCO summit optics).
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Limited outcomes:
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Restoration of flights, visas, pilgrimages.
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No resolution on LAC security guarantees.
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No easing of investment restrictions.
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Incidents (e.g., detention of Indian passenger) highlighted trust deficit.
Russia
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Optics strong, substance weak.
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No new breakthroughs in defence, nuclear, energy, space cooperation.
C. Global Strategic Environment
Changing U.S. National Security Strategy (2025)
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Softer stance on:
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China’s aggression (South China Sea, Taiwan).
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Russia’s actions.
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India’s role downgraded:
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Reduced from “leading global power” (2017 NSS) to limited Indo-Pacific partner.
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Risk of over-alignment with an unpredictable U.S.
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Trump’s “G-2” references (U.S.–China) marginalise India.
Erosion of Rules-Based Order
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Acceptance of Gaza & Ukraine peace plans favouring aggressors.
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China’s push for alternative Global Governance framework.
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UN’s declining conflict-management credibility.
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India lacks a clearly articulated vision for future global order.
D. Regional Security Challenges
Pakistan & Terrorism
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Pahalgam terror attack (April 2025) exposed security vulnerabilities.
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Operation Sindoor:
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Militarily effective.
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Diplomatic support limited.
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Allegations of Indian jet losses dented credibility due to official silence.
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Concerns over rapid escalation after “new normal” doctrine.
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Pakistan’s politics dominated by hardliners (Asim Munir).
Neighbourhood Instability
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Bangladesh: Post-regime change instability; ties at historic low.
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Nepal: Gen-Z protests, fragile transition.
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Myanmar: Junta-led elections despite Indian outreach.
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External alignments against India:
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Saudi–Pakistan defence pact.
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Deterioration of ties with Türkiye & Azerbaijan.
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Key Takeaways / Lessons for 2026
Limits of Performative Diplomacy
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Symbolism ≠ Strategic outcomes.
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Summits, hugs, optics do not replace sustained diplomacy.
Performative Aggression Has Limits
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Threats, boycotts work only with multilateral backing.
Narrative Correction Needed
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Shift from:
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Vishwaguru → Vishwamitra (positive)
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Avoid sliding into “Vishwa-victim” narrative.
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Consistency & Credibility
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Double standards weaken India’s moral standing:
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Minority rights concerns abroad vs silence at home.
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Democracy advocacy vs engagement with Taliban.
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Principles must be applied consistently, not selectively.
Way Forward
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Rebalance foreign policy towards strategic autonomy.
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Reduce overdependence on any single power bloc.
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Articulate India’s own vision of global governance reform.
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Strengthen neighbourhood-first policy with political realism.
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Align values with actions to preserve credibility.
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Invest in substance-driven diplomacy over optics.
