A China-led trilateral nexus as India’s new challenge

Relevance

• GS Paper 2:

Bilateral and regional groupings

Background

 India’s neighbourhood has long been influenced by external powers like China, particularly post-1962.

• China has consistently used Pakistan as a strategic counterweight to India.
• South Asia, once viewed as India’s traditional sphere of influence, is now a contested space due to China’s aggressive diplomacy, economic investments (e.g., BRI), and military posturing.

 New Trilateral Formations

• China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh held a trilateral meeting in Kunming (2025).
• It followed another trilateral between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
• Objective: Promote regional cooperation, but with underlying geopolitical motives—to counter India’s influence and distract it with security challenges.

Historical Precedent & Geopolitical Alignments

• Post-1962 Sino-Indian War, China actively backed Pakistan to restrict India’s rise.
• China supported Pakistan diplomatically (e.g., blocking UNSC terror designations) and militarily (e.g., arms exports forming 80% of Pakistan’s imports).
• The idea of a “Plus One” strategy (China + Pakistan + one South Asian nation) was explored even in 1965 to cut India off via the Siliguri Corridor.

 Recent Security Flashpoint: Operation Sindoor (2025)

• After a Pakistan-sponsored terror attack in Pahalgam, India launched Operation Sindoor.
• China called the retaliation “regrettable” and backed Pakistan’s demand for an investigation.
• Pakistan used Chinese weapons—from drones to fighter jets—showing operational synergy.
• This led to reaffirmation of China-Pakistan “iron-clad” friendship.

India’s Assertive Response

• India has moved away from strategic restraint:
  • Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), Pahalgam (2025) → all responded with strong military action.
  • Indus Waters Treaty suspended, trade halted, ports restricted, and military targets neutralised.
• India’s posture against China’s border aggression (e.g., Doklam, Galwan) has grown more assertive.
• India is expanding strategic ties with like-minded powers (QUAD, Indo-Pacific partnerships).

Regional Resistance to China’s Dominance

Despite Chinese push:

• Maldives under Muizzu has softened anti-India rhetoric due to economic needs.
• Nepal has BRI agreements but disputes over terms have stalled progress.
• Sri Lanka’s President visited India before China and reaffirmed regional balancing.
• India-Bangladesh-Nepal energy cooperation continues despite political frictions.

New Strategic Challenge

• China is reactivating old strategies: leveraging ties with Afghanistan and Bangladesh to encircle India.
• Post-regime changes in these countries, China and Pakistan are increasing:
  • Political engagement
  • Economic dependencies
  • Security cooperation
• These moves may re-enable cross-border terror or influence campaigns, causing internal instability in India.

Implications for India

• India’s biggest strategic challenge is not Pakistan, but China’s deepening regional interference.
• Trilateral groupings seek to:
  • Isolate India in South Asia
  • Expand China’s BRI footprint
  • Strengthen Pakistan’s declining relevance
• South Asian countries now face pressure to balance between China’s resources and India’s regional centrality.