WMO Report: Global Warming Set to Breach 1.5°C Limit (2025–2029)
Context:
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its report released on May 28, 2025, warns that the average global temperature between 2025 and 2029 is 70% likely to exceed the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline).
UPSC Relevance:
GS Paper III – Environment:
Key Findings:
- 70% probability: Global average temperature (2025–2029) will cross 5°C threshold.
- 86% chance: At least one year during 2025–29 will exceed 5°C warming.
- 80% chance: One of these years will be warmer than 2024, the hottest year recorded.
- Annual mean surface temperature range (2025–2029): Between 2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.
Significance of the 1.5°C Threshold:
- Established under: Paris Climate Agreement (COP21, 2015)
- Aim: Limit global warming to below 2°C, preferably to 5°C, to prevent irreversible climate impacts.
- A permanent breach implies sustained warming for 20–30 years, triggering extreme weather, sea-level rise, and ecological collapse.
- Countries must submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2031–2035 to the UNFCCC this year.
Climate Change Impacts:
- Last decade was the warmest on record.
- Climate change threatens:
- 🌱 Ecosystems
- 🌾 Agriculture and Food Security
- 🚑 Public Health
- 💰 Economies and Livelihoods
Regional Climate & Monsoon Outlook (2025–2029):
1.South Asia (incl. India):
- Trend: Wetter than usual in recent years (except 2023)
- IMD:
- 4 out of last 5 years had above-normal monsoons
- 2025 monsoon also predicted to be above-normal
- WMO caution: Occasional dry spells possible
2.Arctic Region:
- Expected warming of 4°C (Nov–Mar), 3.5x faster than global average
- Sea ice decline: Barents Sea, Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk
Other Regional Trends:
| Region | Forecasted Climate Trend |
| Sahel, N. Europe, Alaska, N. Siberia | Above-normal rainfall |
| Amazon Basin | Drier than usual |
Way Forward:
- Strengthen NDCs and align them with 1.5°C goal
- Accelerate clean energy transition
- Improve climate-resilient infrastructure
- Support climate finance and technology transfer to developing nations
- Enhance early warning systems and adaptation strategies
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