Saudi–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA)

On September 17, 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani PM Shahbaz Sharif signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) in Riyadh, with Pakistan’s Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir present.
The pact revives debates on Saudi–Pak defence ties, nuclear dimensions, and implications for West Asia, the U.S., Iran, and India.

Historical Defence Links (since 1951):
- Golden period: 1979–89, when ~20,000 Pakistani troops were stationed in Saudi Arabia to guard the Holy Harams and Al-Saud family, mainly against Iran & Yemen.
- But tensions arose: Saudis saw them as “paid guards”; Pakistan resented lack of autonomy.
- Exclusion of Shia troops was a contentious issue.
- By 1990, Pakistani troops were withdrawn.
Pakistan’s refusals: Declined Saudi requests during 1990 Kuwait war and 2015 Yemen war. Limited to defending the two holy mosques.
U.S. Factor: Pentagon traditionally underpinned Saudi–Pak ties. Recent U.S. involvement seen in Trump’s outreach to Pakistan’s top brass in 2025.

Saudi Calculations
- Past crises show U.S. security umbrella is unreliable (e.g., failure to defend Qatar during Israel’s 2025 strike).
- Wants Pakistani “boots on the ground” but without Arab/Turkish troops to avoid domestic unrest.
- Hopes SMDA could hedge against Iran’s nuclearisation.
- But limitations: Pakistan’s closeness to China; risk of Israeli red lines over nuclear transfers.
Pakistan’s Calculations
- Unlikely to fight Saudi wars (Iran, Yemen, Israel).
- Wants to monetise Saudi insecurity for:
  - Defence hardware and training on advanced equipment.
  - Bailouts in oil and funds to salvage its economy.
  - Boosting strategic leverage against India.
- Seeks personal aggrandisement of top military brass.
U.S. Calculations
- SMDA seen as a stopgap since Saudi–U.S.–Israel defence pact stalled after Gaza war.
- U.S. wants Pakistan to play a stabilising role in GCC security.

Saudi Arabia: Gains symbolic assurance and possible Pakistani support in contingencies.
Pakistan: Gains financial and military dividends without binding commitments.
U.S.: Keeps Pakistan in its Gulf calculus, despite China factor.
Iran: Will see this as hostile alignment, straining Riyadh–Tehran détente.
Israel: Will watch for nuclear dimensions (any transfer of technology or weapons).

Energy & Trade Security
- India: world’s 3rd largest oil importer; Saudi Arabia is a major supplier.
- Diaspora: largest in Saudi Arabia, remittances & socio-economic stability at stake.
Strategic Balance
- Riyadh reassured New Delhi that SMDA is not aimed at India; called India ties “more robust than ever”.
- Yet, India must be vigilant about possible Pakistan leverage via Gulf.
Geopolitics
- SMDA could strengthen Pakistan’s position regionally, but India’s geo-economic heft balances this.
- India’s active diplomacy (since 2014) has improved defence and intelligence cooperation with Riyadh.
- India’s stakes: $100 bn Saudi investment plans (though slow in delivery).

Deepen Energy Diplomacy: Secure long-term oil & LNG contracts with Saudi Arabia.
Enhance Defence Ties: Joint exercises, intelligence sharing, defence production linkages.
Economic Leverage: Fast-track Saudi investments in India’s infrastructure & renewable energy.
Strategic Vigilance: Monitor Pakistan–Saudi cooperation for nuclear/military technology transfer.
Broader Outreach: Build synergies with GCC as a whole to offset Pakistan’s tactical manoeuvring.

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