The Threat to India’s ‘Great Power’ Status” — Kadira Pethiyagoda
Context
- The article warns that a potential S.-Israel-Iran war could damage India’s long-term ambitions of becoming a great power.
- A possible regime change in Iran would increase S. unipolar dominance in West Asia, undermining India’s strategy of promoting a multipolar world order.
- The author stresses that India’s foreign policy goals—strategic autonomy, balanced energy partnerships, and multipolarity—are threatened by increasing Western hegemony in the region.
Key Concerns for India
1. Geopolitical Repercussions of an Iran Conflict
- Toppling Iran’s regime would lead to an imbalance in West Asia, ending India’s ability to play all sides.
- India would lose diplomatic leverage with Israel and Gulf countries if Iran is removed from the regional power matrix.
- Indian energy security would be jeopardized, making it fully dependent on U.S.-aligned oil suppliers.
2. Challenge to Multipolarity
- The U.S. aims to preserve its unipolar world order, which conflicts with India’s pursuit of a multipolar global structure.
- India, along with Russia and China, supports a world where regional poles of power
- India’s foreign policy stance—especially in refusing to isolate Russia—reveals a long-term commitment to this worldview.
Strategic Dilemmas
- Despite partnership with the U.S. to counterbalance China, India does not fully align with Western geopolitical objectives.
- Western media and policymakers increasingly view India with suspicion when it defies the U.S. line (e.g., Russian warship INS Tamal).
Recommended Path Forward
For India:
- Use diplomatic leverage to urge U.S. restraint on Iran.
- Emphasize that destabilizing West Asia weakens India more than China, which may hurt U.S. Indo-Pacific interests.
- Project multipolarity as a stable, peaceful alternative to war or Chinese hegemony.
For the U.S.:
- Accept multipolarity as a rising global reality.
- Recognize that India’s rise benefits global balance, rather than enforcing a unipolar order that invites resistance.
Conclusion
India’s ambition to become a great power depends on a stable and multipolar world order, especially in regions like West Asia. A U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict or regime change in Iran could reduce India’s strategic autonomy, harm its energy security, and weaken its ability to balance relations with all regional powers.
India must use diplomatic tools to promote peace and stability, and continue advocating multipolarity as a more balanced and inclusive global order. The U.S., in turn, should recognize that supporting India’s rise and respecting regional diversity will help maintain long-term global stability.
