Rival authorities have backed a ceasefire in Libya, raising the prospect of a de-escalation in the country’s long-running conflict.
What is the conflict?
- Khalifa Haftar’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) has been battling forces aligned with the Tripoli-based, internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Both sides are formed from local armed factions, whose shifting loyalties have helped steer the course of the conflict. Both have depended heavily on foreign allies pursuing strategic and political goals in Libya.
- Turkey stepped up its military support for the GNA in January after signing a maritime deal with Tripoli, allowing it to repel a 14-month LNA offensive against the capital.
- Haftar has long enjoyed backing from countries including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Russia and Jordan.
- Libya’s fault lines surfaced nine years ago as local groups took different positions in the NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi. An attempted democratic transition slid out of control as armed groups built local power bases and coalesced round rival political factions.
- After a battle for Tripoli in 2014, one faction moved east and set up a parallel government and institutions. It recognised Khalifa Haftar as military chief as he began a long campaign against Islamist groups and other opponents in Benghazi.
- The Government of National Accord (GNA) emerged from a December 2015, UN-backed agreement struck as Islamic State gained a foothold in Libya and migrant smuggling to Europe surged. But eastern factions spurned the deal. Instead, Haftar consolidated control of the east and swept south in early 2019 before launching his offensive on Tripoli.
Areas under control
- Front lines are drawn at LNA-held Sirte, roughly the midpoint of Libya’s Mediterranean coastline and a gateway to major oil ports.The GNA and affiliated groups control Libya’s densely populated northwest and the LNA holds the east. Allegiances in the south are more tenuous.
- What is happening now?
- Fighting stopped in June 2020 but both sides have continued to mobilise. The ceasefire call by GNA head Fayez al-Sarraj proposed demilitarising Sirte, allowing an oil restart by freezing revenues until a political deal is reached, and elections in March. But it is unclear how much backing those ideas have in the west, let alone the east.
- The LNA dismissed the Sarraj’s announcement as a ploy. A parallel ceasefire call by Aguila Saleh, head of an eastern parliament aligned with Haftar, proposed Sirte as the seat of a new government.
- The United Nations is pushing the two sides to resolve issues including oil revenue distribution, the make-up of a unity government and the status of armed groups. Foreign powers officially back the process, but have also shipped arms to their allies, undercutting diplomatic efforts.