Lifetime risk of diabetes in metros alarming

#GS3 #SCIENCE #HEALTH

Disturbing new research published in Diabetologia (journal of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes) shows that more than half of men (55%) and some two-thirds (65%) of women aged 20 years in India will likely develop diabetes, with most of those cases (around 95%) likely to be type 2 diabetes.

  • India already has a significant health burden caused by diabetes and estimates suggest that 77 million adults have diabetes and this is expected to almost double to 134 million by 2045.
  • The authors noted that their new estimates from India are much closer to estimates of lifetime risk of 20-year-olds among the black and Hispanic populations in the U.S. (above 50%), groups considered at a higher risk than the general population.

 

Various factors

  • The researchers noted that — urbanisation, decreasing diet quality and decreased levels of physical activity — are all contributing to this hidden epidemic.
  • Women generally had a higher lifetime risk across the lifespan. Remaining lifetime risk of developing diabetes declined with age. 
  • They estimated that for those currently aged 60 years and free of diabetes, around 38% of women and 28% of men would develop diabetes. 
  • Obesity had a substantial impact on these projections. The risk was highest among obese metropolitan Indians — 86% among 20-year-old women and 87% among men.
  • Despite these very high predicted lifetime risks of diabetes, it is possible to prevent or postpone diabetes by effective lifestyle modification.
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