Case surge disproves prediction of decline 

#GS2 #Health 

NITI Aayog member V.K. Paul had said that the number of active cases would dip to zero by May 16 

  • However, included in this was a PowerPoint slide that projected the benefits from “extending the lockdown” beyond April 15.  
  • This had a curve showing the number of active cases plummeting to zero by May 16. 
  • From May 3, India would hit its peak in adding daily new cases at a little above 1,500, and this would drop to 1,000 cases by May 12, and down to zero by May 16, this curve showed.  
  • While the presentation was made available to the media and heavily criticised on social media, electronic copies of that slide no longer appeared to show the questionable curve in new cases declining to zero. 
  • For a decline in the national average, experts have said, there will have to be a flattening in new cases that lasted over two weeks in key States such as Gujarat, Maharashtra and West Bengal that were fuelling the rise in numbers.  

Steady increase 

  • Since April 27, there has not been a day when India has posted fewer than 1,500 cases, and the number has steadily increased to over 3,000 a day.  
  • To be sure, doubling time has improved and testing rates, too, have significantly increased, with Union Health Minister claiming that India is now testing nearly 1,00,000 samples a day.  
  • India’s test positivity rate remains at around 4%, meaning 4 of 100 samples are turning up positive.  
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